Working Papers

AI Unbound: Digital Infrastructure, AI Adoption, and Firm Performance
with Gianmarco Ottaviano

We study how digital infrastructure relaxes constraints on the diffusion and economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Using administrative data and a nationally representative enterprise survey from Turkey (2021–2024), we document significant disparities in AI adoption. Adoption is concentrated among large firms and in regions with high-speed broadband and proximity to data centers, particularly for software-intensive and cloud-based applications. To identify causal effects, we exploit the staggered expansion of Turkey’s national natural gas pipeline network, which serves as a conduit for fiber-optic deployment. Because pipeline routing is determined by energy distribution priorities rather than digital demand, it provides plausibly exogenous variation in connectivity. Difference-in-differences estimates show that improved connectivity significantly increases AI adoption, particularly for software-intensive technologies and among small and medium-sized enterprises. Instrumental-variable estimates indicate that infrastructure-driven AI adoption raises labor productivity and export intensity while shifting labor composition toward ICT-related roles. These findings highlight digital infrastructure as a primary determinant of both the pace of AI diffusion and its resulting economic returns.

 CEPR Discussion Paper No. 21385 : PDF

Skills, Not Scale GenAI and Technology Adoption

with Gianmarco Ottaviano

Do the determinants of technology adoption depend on technological architecture? Using administrative data on Turkish firms from 2021 to 2024, we compare the adoption of traditional and generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). We show that GenAI adoption is driven by workforce skill intensity and is not positively associated with firm size, whereas traditional AI depends on both scale and skills. Firms that adopt both technologies are distinct and represent the most persistent adoption mode. Conditional on adoption, the skill-to-size ratio governs technology choice, and transition dynamics indicate a sequential process in which firms adopt GenAI before expanding to hybrid use. Exploiting the release of ChatGPT as a quasi-experimental reduction in access costs, we find that high-skill firms differentially increased GenAI adoption, while firm size played a limited role. These results suggest that the canonical size-based diffusion pattern is not universal but depends on the cost structure of technologies, with implications for innovation policy and productivity dispersion.

 CEPR Discussion Paper No. 21506 : PDF

Technology Spillovers, Diffusion and Rivalry in Firm Networks
with Ester Faia and Gianmarco Ottaviano

We examine how upstream firms' technology adoption affects the performance and adoption decisions of downstream partners. Using business-to-business data with administrative records on advanced technology adoption, we find gains in productivity, performance, adoption probabilities of firms connected to the adopter, relatively to those that are not. Identification combines staggered event studies, balanced panels of pre-existing relationships, and recentering methods to address expected exposure within the network. Gains vary along firm size, centrality, technology quality, but do not systematically increase with input exposure, suggesting that knowledge spillovers may induce organizational adjustments. Adoption by competitors is associated with short-run negative effects.

 CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19804 : PDF |  VoxEU Column

Under Review

Forced Reshoring: Supply Chain Disruptions, Prices and Firm-to-Firm Networks
PDF

Production Networks and Propagation of Supply and Demand Shocks
with Kamil Yilmaz
PDF

Trademarks and Expansion in Production Networks
with Nevine El-Mallakh

Environmental Regulations, Selection and Trade
with Francesco Devicienti, Elena Grinza, Alessandro Manello and Davide Vannoni
SSRN

Circular Economy Investments, MNEs, and Internationalization: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy
with Francesco Devicienti, Elena Grinza, Alessandro Manello and Davide Vannoni
R&R Journal of Cleaner Production

Publications

Inflation Diffusion through Supply Chains
International Economics, December 2025 : Paper

Policy

Country Economic Memorandum: Leveraging Global Value Chains for Growth in Turkey
World Bank : Report